New analysis of satellite imagery shows China has rapidly developed roads along the contested Line of Actual Control with India over the past year, the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) report says.
Main points:
- Satellite images show that China built a new road within 150 meters of the LAC in recent months
- The area was the scene of clashes between Indian and Chinese troops last week
- Experts say a purely strategic approach ignores the environmental damage caused by border demands
Infrastructure development played a role in last week’s border skirmish between the two nuclear-armed nations, according to report authors Nathan Ruser and Baani Grewal.
The LAC is an area straddling the Himalayan River that divides the world’s two most populous nations and was the site of a deadly clash between soldiers in 2020.
Mr Ruser said the Chinese side is investing heavily in infrastructure to gain a strategic advantage, and countries like Australia should pay attention because of the wider implications for neighboring countries and the region.
But some experts warn that viewing this region only through geopolitics could lead to increased militarization, damage to the environment and impact on the lives of the people who live there.
What do satellite images show?
Before and after satellite images show that the main access roads on the Chinese side have been upgraded or upgraded, and a new road has been built in the Yangtse Plain from Tangwu New Town to within 150 meters of the LAC ridge.
“The construction of this new road allowed Chinese troops to move up to Indian positions during the December 9 battle,” according to the report.
Mr Ruser told the ABC satellite images taken five days after the clash showed footprints in the snow.
“Before this latest round of construction, there was probably a small footpath used by Chinese military patrols or by nomadic herders living on the plateau,” Mr Ruser said.
“And in mid-2022, that was upgraded and built into a … fairly comprehensive road.
“It really shows the amount of investment China has put into its border infrastructure.”
India and China said the latest incident was caused by the other trying to cross into their territory.
ASPI’s analysis said that while there was no evidence that the latest “intrusion” by Chinese troops was aimed at capturing Indian positions or territory, it may be part of a strategy to normalize the Chinese People’s Liberation Army presence in the LAC.
“Engaging in such an incursion, the PLA is able to strategically position any ‘retreat’ to higher ground on the plains,” the analysis said, adding that part of the retreat in the latest clash ended up in a small camp. a short distance from the LAC of the new road.
This allows “China to frame the withdrawal as a concession or de-escalation, rather than an escalation or change to the status quo,” the report argued.
The ASPI report described the situation as a sort of ‘escalation trap’ for India.
“I think the way the escalation has been handled shows there’s no appetite for conflict at the moment, on the one hand,” added Mr Ruser.
He said the clashes were often perceived as “tit for tat” and ignored countries such as Australia and the US, which regularly speak of the importance of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait, for example.
“It’s probably not a serious risk of conflict, but there is a risk that it could escalate unexpectedly, and remember that India and China are both nuclear-armed states,” he said.
“So I think there needs to be more recognition that this issue is not just something that affects China and India; if the situation on this border changes, then it has implications for peace and order in the entire region.”
“Frustrating and possibly dangerous”
Dr Ruth Gamble, senior Himalayan professor and environmental historian at La Trobe University, explained that the LAC follows the McMahon Line, drawn by the British and jumps between mountain peaks.
“Since they have agreed not to use guns at this level, these fights resemble pub or football fights, except with laddies or sticks. In the worst fights, they put spikes on the sticks,” he said.
He added that building roads on permafrost is harmful, and that it is difficult to maintain roads at this altitude, more than 4,000 meters above sea level.
“They have to be done again after every winter and monsoon season,” Dr Gamble said.
“Building and maintaining all-weather roads – a full-time job – allows more troops to approach the border, which will likely lead to more clashes as the two sides negotiate their positions.”
Dr. Gamble said it was “much easier to build roads on a ridge than on a mountainside, especially in a seismically active mountain range.”
“The Chinese military can pretty easily dig up the asphalt on the Plateau – they’ve been really good at that too.”
But approaching the issue only from a strategic perspective was “frustrating and possibly dangerous,” he said.
“Even an ecological region is too important to be reduced to a strategic board game,” he said.
“Most ASPI reports in this area describe the strategic implications of India and China and ignore the environmental damage caused by border escalation and the stresses placed on soldiers at high altitudes.
“It’s an essential, important and fragile ecosystem that we should protect. It’s also close to people’s homes.”
He said that attention should be paid to how the two countries can work to reduce tensions and protect the environment.
Dr Alexander Davis, professor of international relations at the University of Western Australia, agreed.
“Pure strategic analyzes of this region, in the end, are not helpful and feed into the problems facing the region,” he said.
“Thinking of the Himalayas only as a place for geopolitics and strategy contributes to the degradation of the environment and the dispossession of local communities.”
How road construction can increase tensions
Dr. Davis added that on the one hand, road construction causes anxiety on the other.
“Strategically, this leads to the perpetuation and aggravation of the conflict”, he said.
He added that it was more difficult for India to build roads because of the surrounding terrain, which included jungle, pine forests, mud and water.
“China uses India’s road construction as a justification for its own roads, and India does the same, and so the cycle continues. More road construction will only increase tensions on both sides,” he said.
“Neither side benefits from this. Drawing borders on ice caps leads to militarization and accelerates localized climate change. This is not a win-win game for either side.”
Dr David Brewster, a senior research fellow at the Australian National University’s National Security College, said the timing of the latest fighting was unusual: in the northern hemisphere’s winter, rather than summer.
He added that the clash with Indian troops came at a time when Beijing was relatively open to Australia, with Foreign Minister Penny Wong due to make the first visit to China by an Australian minister since 2019.
“They will push against some neighbors, while they reconcile with others,” he said.
“I think it’s interesting that right now they’ve opened the door to the Australians, while they’re pushing against the Indians.”
The ABC has approached China’s Ministry of Defence, India’s Ministry of External Affairs and the Chinese Embassy in Australia for comment.